web hosting short URLs photo sharing

The Seasonal Tendency is a SMOTASS proprietary indicator which evaluates each individual market over the last 15 years or more (based on the commodity). It points out this week's directional probability for the specified futures' contract based on its seasonal history. U indicates that an upward movement is likely, D indicates downward tendencies, and N (Neutral) basically states that there isn't any pronounced historical seasonal direction. The seasonal tendency indicator may be used as a trading filter. As you know, history does not always repeat itself.. Remember, this is only a helpful tool in the belt of the S.M.O.T.

                                              PrevDay Vol. & 21

Prev Day Volume is self explanatory -- The 21~Vrank directly below, represents the position or RANK of the individual market previous day's volume (1-21) relative to the last 21 Days Volume. For Example - the number 1 indicates that yesterday's volume for the specified market is the Highest Volume in 21 days, while the number 21 denotes the Lowest Volume. If the 5day volume Moving Average is greater than the 30day volume MA then a +(plus) sign will appear. Conversely, if the 5day volume MA is less than the 30day MA a -(minus) sign appears.

                                      Primary S.M.O.T. Res/Sup

The Primary S.M.O.T. Res. / Sup. prices are based on the last 80 days of market activity as well as key historical price points. These numbers focus on the repetitive areas where a specific months' commodity/futures contract tends to meet substantial Resistance / Support. The Res. / Sup. will change as the markets penetrate existing levels or as the contract moves beyond the 80day Res./Sup. areas.Clip this SMOT30 price indicator onto your trading tool belt. 21~ HIGH/LOW_ 21~ HIGH/LOW - This is just a column listing the 21 day HIGH(green) & LOW(red) prices for each of the "SMOT"30 markets. These can be used as basic Resistance / Support levels or simply to compare today's market action to the 21 day HIGH/LOW.Yet another quick glance "SMOT" indicator.

42~ MA Dir.-- is the overall 42 day Moving Average direction of each Market ( U= up, D=down, N=neutral )-It's just another helpful informational indicator - watch it closely in conjunction with the 22 day CCI and draw your own "SMOT" conclusions. Remember the CCI works best in trending markets. Also monitor any crossovers from U to N to D -- and -- D to N to U..

This number represents the position or RANK of the individual market day's Closing price (1-21) relative to the last 21 Days of Close prices. For Example - the number 1 indicates that Today's Closing Price for the specified market is the Highest Price Close in 21 days, while the number 21 denotes the Lowest Close Price during the last 21 Trading Days.

14~Volatl. 1-30 Rank is the Ranked Volatility of the specified Future Contract in relationship to all of the SMOT30 markets. The Volatility Formula is Volatl.=((14day HIGH - 14day LOW) / 14day LOW ). This % result for each individual Future contract is Ranked 1 thru 30 in terms of 1 being the most volatile (Highest %), and 30 being the least volatile (Lowest %) "SMOT30" Future contract during the last 14 Trading days. The "SMOT" believe that there is greater Profit Opportunity in High Volatility markets.

This is a 1-30 ranking of the "SMOT30" . An explanation on the trend# ranking is as follows--> 1st.- The exponential smoothing values are plotted by using the last 24 close prices for each of the "SMOT30" Markets. 2nd. -The actual close prices during the last 21 days are compared ( via Correl Excel worksheet function) to the exponential smoothing forecasted values. 3rd.- -These Correlation percentages are then ranked 1-30... where #1 represents the market that has the highest % (ES forecasted prices vs. Actual Closes).& where #30 represents the market that has the lowest % (ES forecasted vs. Actual Closes). The "SMOT" closely monitor The Trend #'s 1,2, & 3..These markets are usually trending..

14 Day Relative Strength Index --This indicator developed by Welles Wilder Jr. is often used to identify price tops & bottoms by keying on specific levels (normally 30 & 70) on a scale from 0-100. Failure swings above 70 or below 30 can warn of coming reversals. The formula for calculating RSI is: RSI=100-(100/1-RS) where RS= average of 14 day's up closes divided by the average of 14 day's down closes. The RSI is also used to ascertain divergent situations.

18 Day Money Flow Index is a Volume weighted momentum indicator that measures the strength of money flowing in & out of a Futures Contract. MFI= 100-(100/(1+(sum of pos. MF / sum of neg.MF))) where MF= Typical Price(High + Low + Close)/3 x Volume. The "SMOT" look for a divergence between the contract price & the MFI as a possible market reversal sign. Generally , market tops occur above 80; bottoms below 20.

The 1st. & 2nd. Level pivot points are areas of Support /Resistance used by floor traders.Knowing these key pivot prices can help traders identify potential entry & exit points. These numbers used by the locals are simply calculated using the previous day's prices.The S.M.O.T. are respectively aware of the daily floor trader pivot points.. Calculations--> Pivot point(P)=(High+Low+Close)/3 : 1st Res level (R1)=2xP-Low : 1st. Sup. level (S1)=2xP-High : 2nd Res. level (R2)=(P-S1)+R1 : 2nd Sup. level (S2)=P-(R2-S1).

"The#"is a cumulative sum of 10 "SMOT" indicators.Some of those indicators are in the SMOT30, others are not. A value of 1 is given for each positive (long) signal. A value of -1 is given for each negative (short) signal. The greater "The#" (+5 to +10) indicates a more Bullish Market climate. The lower "The#"(-5 to -10) represents a Bearish tone to the Market. "The#" between (-4 & +4) is pointing towards a Market that is somewhat Neutral. "The#" is sometimes used as over-bought (>7) or over-sold (<-7) indicators.

                                           Commodity Channel Index

 The (CCI) is a price momentum indicator developed many years ago by Donald R. Lambert. It measures the price excursions for a given period (22 days) from the mean price for the period as a statistical variation. The BASIC rules for the (CCI) are to be LONG when the (CCI) crosses & remains above +100 and to be SHORT when the (CCI) crosses & remains below -100. Although the Commodity Channel Index is a powerful indicator, as with any indicator, the (CCI) should be used as a trading tool not as a trading system. The "S.M.O.T." always examine the Commodity Channel Index momentum value before & after initiating a trade.